New LCV sales will hit 360,000 this year – with van sales in line for 5% drop on 2016 according to automotive data experts, cap hpi. Steve Botfield, senior editor commercial vehicles & motorcycles, explains:

2017 will be the first time since 2012 that LCV registrations have not topped the previous year’s registrations.

There has been a steady increase in LCV registrations since 2010 with over 375,000 registrations recorded for 2016. Up until the end of June the volume of LCV registrations stood at almost 185,000 so our forecasting is predicting 15,000 less registrations for the whole of 2017 compared with last year.

cap hpi data reveals that from 2010 to 2016 LCV registrations have grown by a total of 69%. It also shows a possible 18% increase in vehicles on a three-year cycle when compared to 2016.

Year on Year growth was recorded for only four of the LCV sector manufacturers with the most popular derivatives being the Ford Transit Custom 290 L1 2.2 100PS Low Roof, Volkswagen Caddy C20 1.6 TD 102PS Startline, Mercedes Sprinter 313CDi LWB High Roof and Nissan NV200 1.5dCi Acenta.

Diesel remains dominant for commercial vehicles with only the small van sector having an impact on registrations with EV fuel type.

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Limited range and payload restrictions means that electric vehicles are not in contention in the sector as a whole.

EV shows a YOY growth from 2016 but petrol registrations in this sector have already overtaken the whole of last year’s numbers.

Interest in alternative fuelled vehicles within the LCV sector is mainly limited to the small van sector, with both electric and petrol increasing their market share. All other sectors however rely on diesel being the fuel of choice based on pure economy.

LCV used values reflect the economic uncertainty within businesses and this has been evident in the research data we compile and the analysis of the movements being made on a monthly basis.

This situation is anticipated to continue until there is greater economic stability and the level of new vehicle supply matches demand. We saw LCV registrations hit their peak in 2016 and with volumes anticipated to be around 5% less in 2017, consolidation will be the word in the LCV sector for 2018.